A new Goldman Sachs report suggests artificial intelligence could trigger “significant disruption” in the global labor market. In the U.S. and Europe, as many as two-thirds of jobs could become automated at least in part, and generative AI could substitute up to one-fourth of current work. Extrapolating the estimates globally indicates generative AI “could expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation,” the report says. Among U.S. workers, of those occupations that present a natural opportunity for AI assistance, somewhere between 25-50 percent of existing duties can be replaced, the Goldman Sachs research team says.

The upshot, however, is that technological innovation drives “the vast majority of long-run employment growth.” That means the effects of AI on employment — including “significant labor cost savings, new job creation, and higher productivity for non-displaced workers” — could point toward a productivity boom that raises economic growth substantially,” the Goldman Sachs report says, concluding “the timing of such a boom is hard to predict.”

The report finds the use of AI “could eventually increase annual global GDP by 7 percent,” indicative of the enormous economic potential of generative AI “if it delivers on its promise.” That big “if” ultimately depends on whether the capabilities of AI live up to the hype, and the adoption timeline.

Of U.S. jobs Goldman Sachs identifies as likely to be impacted, “legal” ranks first, with about 40 percent of the workforce expected to have half of its duties replaced. “Office and administrative support” placed second, with about 35 percent of workers looking at having 50 percent of their duties replaced.

The second tier of affected workers are likely to have 10-49 percent of their functionality “complemented” by AI. In this sector, Goldman Sachs predicts 100 percent of the following jobs will be complemented to that degree: sales and related, community and social services, educational instruction and library, and computer and mathematical.

“On the other end of the scale, just 1 percent of tasks in the building and ground cleanings and maintenance sector are vulnerable to automation. Installation, maintenance, and repair work is the second least affected industry with 4 percent of work potentially being affected, and construction and extraction comes third from the bottom with 6 percent,” reports CNBC.

Globally, emerging markets are less exposed to automation than developing markets. According to the report, “Hong Kong, Israel, Japan, Sweden and the U.S. are likely to be the top five most” impacted regions. “Meanwhile, employees in mainland China, Nigeria, Vietnam, Kenya and, in last place, India, are the least likely to see their work being taken over by AI technology,” CNBC writes.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reports that a study by University of Pennsylvania researchers in conjunction with ChatGPT-maker OpenAI finds that at least half of mathematic and accounting tasks “could be completed much faster” with AI, and that “the same was true for mathematicians, interpreters, writers and nearly 20 percent of the U.S. workforce.”

Related:
Generative AI Is Already Changing White-Collar Work as We Know It, The Wall Street Journal, 3/29/23
Generative AI May Improve Knowledge Workers’ Productivity, ETCentric, 3/15/23
Emerging AI Programs Could Impact These Gaming Jobs First, Bloomberg, 3/31/23