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Financial Analyst Weighs Pros and Cons of Zynga $7 Billion IPO

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December 5, 2011
  • In an analysis of Zynga’s pricy IPO, Forbes contributor Peter Cohan advises investors to “avoid this stock.”
  • “Social media gaming sweat shop Zynga filed to sell 14.3 percent, or 100 million, of its shares, valuing the lot at $7 billion,” he writes. “Should you pay the price to get in on its IPO? No.”
  • Zynga does have some things working in its favor: 1) It operates in the highly profitable virtual goods market that is expected to more than double by 2014; 2) It has a competitive advantage with the largest player audience on Facebook and 383 percent annual growth rate from 2008 to 2010; and 3) It has the ability to sustain its leadership position. “In October, Zynga announced Project Z that would lessen Zynga’s dependence on Facebook users. If that and its effort to go mobile work, Zynga would be in a stronger long-term position,” suggest the article.
  • So why not invest? Zynga’s IPO valuation is too high relative to its competitors; its growth is slowing down; and, its net income shrank for the majority of 2011 leaving “razor thin” 3.7 percent net profit margins. “No amount of sweat-shopping will fix Zynga’s slowing growth,” reports Cohan.

Panel Notes from FoE 5: Spreadable Media in a Networked Society

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November 11, 2011

Here are some key remarks from a panel at this week’s Futures of Entertainment conference at MIT.

Panel: “Spreadable Media: Creating Value and Meaning in a Networked Society”

  • Letting unauthorized content circulate and studying how it’s used and consumed is a great opportunity that no one seems to be taking advantage of.
  • Kickstarter crowdsources funding. The key is that the audience buys into the idea of a film financially. But crowdsourcing doesn’t have to stop there; it could lead to crowdsourcing of casting, SFX, etc… increasing the attachment the public has with a project.
  • A shift from the term viral to spreadable. Viral gives the content a feel of “special,” “hard to do” or “a one-off,” but spreadable allows people to think of producing content that people will want to share and consume.
  • If you start to “pay” the fan for their “free labor” of connecting with your brand, the relationship shifts and is no longer a legitimate serendipitous fan connection.
  • The impression model (number of views) is no longer valid. There is a growing trend to say, “But I can find a few people that are influencers.” However, picking a small group of people to communicate with can be shortsighted. Those small groups may be vocal, but may not know what the masses truly like or want.
  • Massive organizations are set up to hear, very slow to response. Massive organizations aren’t set up for listening. Listening is a very human response; you can’t take the humanity out of communication.
  • Companies need to start thinking about taking a much more service-based attitude. Take for example Dominos: “Our pizza was bad; what can we do to make it better?”
  • Companies are crisis-based, companies must be able to listen to audiences. Media producers have to listen to their audience before a crisis hits.
  • But we have to understand that too much media circulating outside of context can lead to dilution or can be used against the media creator.

Speakers:
Henry Jenkins (University of Southern California)
Sam Ford (Peppercom Strategic Communications)
Joshua Green (Undercurrent)

Disney and YouTube Join Forces in Original Video Series Deal

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November 8, 2011
  • Disney and YouTube have announced a partnership to produce original content for online distribution.
  • “Disney Interactive Media and YouTube, a division of Google, will spend a combined $10 million to $15 million on original video series; those shorts will be produced by Disney and distributed on a co-branded channel on Disney.com and YouTube,” reports The New York Times. “The channel will also include amateur video culled from the torrent uploaded to YouTube daily.”
  • Disney hopes that the deal will attract children to its online videos as Disney.com has seen a drop in traffic and Disney Interactive has reported losses over the last four quarters.
  • The goal is to “bring Disney’s legacy of storytelling to a new generation of families and Disney enthusiasts on the platforms they prefer,” explained James A. Pitaro, co-president of Disney Interactive, who added that a complete redesign of Disney.com should be completed by fall 2012.
  • YouTube hopes the deal will help create credibility with parents who are concerned about the site’s content as well as compete with cable providers for advertising revenue.

Shall I Buy Enables Social Shopping: Foodspotting for Everything Else

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November 3, 2011
  • Shall I Buy is a free iPhone app with the goal of combining instant social feedback for shoppers to make better purchasing decisions and possibly combat buyer’s remorse.
  • A shopper can share a video, picture, price and location to engage potential followers and incite comments, and allows sharing of links through Facebook and Twitter.
  • “The app is done simply, taking heavy styling cues from Instagram, but in doing so it’s effective and easy to use,” reports TheNextWeb.
  • The post cites two potential downsides: 1) By default, users receive a great number of push notifications, and 2) It would be helpful to have “a way to configure notifications inside of the app itself,” rather than going to the website.
  • Robert Scoble equates it to “Foodspotting for everything else.”

Putting Rumors to Rest: HP Announces it will Keep its PC Division

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October 28, 2011
  • HP announced this week that it is keeping its PC division, despite recent rumors to the contrary.
  • The company’s Personal System Group was the world’s leading manufacturer of personal computers for fiscal year 2010.
  • “HP objectively evaluated the strategic, financial and operational impact of spinning off PSG. It’s clear after our analysis that keeping PSG within HP is right for customers and partners, right for shareholders, and right for employees,” explained Meg Whitman, HP president and CEO, in a press release.
  • The decision followed a data-driven evaluation that indicated PSG’s deep integration across the supply chain, IT and procurement. “It also detailed the significant extent to which PSG contributes to HP’s solutions portfolio and overall brand value,” suggests the release. “Finally, it also showed that the cost to recreate these in a standalone company outweighed any benefits of separation.”
  • Forbes contributor John Furrier has been railing against HP getting rid of its PC division, citing its strong potential to “morph into smartphones, tablets, future laptops, etc.”

Google Development Experimentation Often Leads to Cancelled Projects

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October 18, 2011
  • According to The Next Web, 90 of the 251 products (36 percent) that Google released in the past 12 years have been cancelled.
  • “Experimentation is a part of Google’s culture,” indicates TNW. “Launching in beta habitually creates a fearlessness that continues to serve them well. Even though Google knows that tons of their products won’t make the cut, their success is partially due to throwing a fist full of darts, and seeing what sticks.”
  • In a related TechCrunch post, the company plans to focus on Google+, and as a result will be killing off Google Buzz in a few weeks as well as iGoogle’s social features come January 15, 2012. Google Labs was shut down on Friday.
  • Additional services are also reportedly getting the axe by January 15: Code Search (for open source code on the Web), Jaiku (for users to send updates to friends), and the University Research Program for Google Search (available to select academic researchers).

Company Culture: Former CTO Outlines 5 Secrets to Pixar Success

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October 17, 2011
  • Oren Jacob, Pixar’s former CTO, talks about the company’s keys to their success: Honesty about the quality of their films, a willingness to address problems quickly, looking at the source of problems, storyboarding out the issues, and hiring people that fit the company culture.
  • The story behind the overhaul of “Toy Story 2” was presented regarding the importance to: “Be honest with yourself. When the work isn’t great, say so. Then get to work making something you can believe in.”
  • Fast Company also points out the company’s hiring philosophy: “When Pixar is evaluating potential hires they look for three traits: humor, the ability to tell a story, and an example of excellence.”
  • And one of the more interesting lessons (applicable to a range of businesses): “Sketching storyboards and acting out scripts are the currency of ideas at Pixar. Try a variety of different media to find what works best for you and your organization.”

Hulu Taken Off the Auction Block: Sale of Video Hub Tabled by Owners

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October 17, 2011
  • After months of bidding, Hulu’s owners — News Corp., NBCUniversal, Disney and Providence Equity Partners — have decided to stop its sale.
  • “Since Hulu holds a unique and compelling strategic value to each of its owners, we have terminated the sale process and look forward to working together to continue mapping out its path to even greater success,” explained the partners in a short statement. “Our focus now rests solely on ensuring that our efforts as owners contribute in a meaningful way to the exciting future that lies ahead for Hulu.”
  • In a related TechCrunch post, it was suggested that media companies saw more value in retaining licensing fees than selling them.
  • Bidders were not willing to pay more for Hulu knowing that the costs for content rights would increase dramatically after the two year period being sold. (Google reportedly bid $4 billion, but wanted streaming rights for longer than the guaranteed “couple of years.”)

New Apple CEO: Inside the Mind and Philosophy of Tim Cook

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October 5, 2011
  • Apple’s new CEO Tim Cook hosted his first iPhone event since taking over the company reigns in August. The Hollywood Reporter provides some interesting insight into Cook’s personality and work ethic.
  • Cook has been with Apple since 1998. Until taking over for Steve Jobs as CEO, he expertly handled company logistics and operations, serving as Mr. Inside to Jobs’ Mr. Outside, suggest the article.
  • His 18-hour workdays are legendary, even amongst Apple employees. “Cook probably gets his stamina from being a fitness buff and is said to be a fan of cyclist Lance Armstrong,” comments THR.
  • Cook is said to be more personable than Jobs was in the position of CEO, taking more time to respond cordially and even with a tone of friendliness to customer emails.
  • Under Jobs, Apple didn’t have a corporate policy matching employees’ charitable donations, but Cook changed that and now Apple will match employee donations dollar-for-dollar up to $10,000.

Will Big Data Help Shape the Next Market Winners and Losers?

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October 3, 2011
  • Forrester Research defines big data as “techniques and technologies that make handling data at extreme scale affordable.” The research firm estimates that companies effectively utilize less than 5 percent of available data, and further suggests that big data will help companies use information to dominate the competition in their market.
  • “It seems that every week another vendor slaps ‘big data’ into its marketing material – and it’s going to get worse,” writes Forrester analyst Brian Hopkins for Forbes. “Should you look beyond the vendor hype and pay attention? Absolutely yes! Why? Because big data has the potential to shape your market’s next winners and losers.”
  • Big data is not only concerned with the volume of information but also in velocity, variety and variability of data, since “data is usually generated so fast that you need to constantly capture more of it to be valuable for some decisions.”
  • The write-up in Forbes is promoting Forrester’s new report, “Expand Your Digital Horizon With Big Data.” From the executive summary: “At extreme scale, traditional data management and business intelligence (BI) become impractical, and your business does not get what it demands — more insight to drive greater business performance. Big data helps firms work with extremes to deliver value from data cost-effectively.
  • However CIOs must understand that this is not business as usual. In fact, big data will disrupt the data management landscape by changing fundamental notions about data governance and IT delivery. Take the time to understand big data as well as its implications and begin a balanced approach that considers more than just the technology hype.”

Disruptive TV Trends: What is the Future of the Business of Television?

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September 28, 2011
  • Amsterdam’s annual IBC event offered a number of potential TV game-changers earlier this month, suggests TVNewsCheck. These include cloud-based or service-oriented architecture (SOA) applications for capturing, producing, processing and distributing digital video and audio; IT-based playout (channel in a box) tools that could potentially make broadcast playout more affordable; and 3D technology likely to be deployed for the 2012 London Olympics.
  • Also on display were technologies “aimed at making 3D production more affordable and compatible with standard 2D operations.”
  • Cloud services were at the forefront since broadcasters are now challenged by having to support an increasing number of distribution platforms.
  • Vendors discussed the fundamental concerns about cloud-based architectures, “notably content security, access to content, collaboration, bandwidth and workflow continuity,” reports TVNewsCheck.
  • In a related article from GigaOM that analyzes shifts in traditional television, venture capitalist Habib Kairouz writes that the TV industry is poised for some significant changes due to a number of upcoming trends: TV anywhere and anytime will catch on; the rise of the Internet-connected TV and interactive programming; and personalized advertising.
  • The article suggests that content owners will benefit as MSOs, IPTV providers, and others compete with one another. MSO’s are hedging their bets by purchasing both traditional and interactive content, while TV manufacturers are looking to build Internet services into their low margin businesses. We should watch for new entrants to increase the disruption in this space.

Corporate Shuffle: Meg Whitman Has Big Plans to Turn Things Around at HP

By
September 26, 2011
  • Just after taking over the reigns at Hewlett-Packard last week, Meg Whitman spoke with Kara Swisher of All Things D about her initial plans regarding her new role.
  • As HP’s new CEO, Whitman plans to focus on four major issues: meeting Wall Street’s expectations for HP over the next 45 days, integrating HP’s $10 billion acquisition of Autonomy into the company, making a decision whether to keep or spin off the Personal Systems Group (which includes HP’s consumer PC business), and meeting and getting to know HP’s employees.
  • “I took this job, because HP really matters to Silicon Valley, to California, to this country and to the world,” said Whitman. “This is an icon and the place where the initial spark to create Silicon Valley came from and I am resolved to restore it to its rightful place… I have the skills to do that.”
  • Whitman takes over for former CEO Leo Apotheker. According to All Things D, “the troubled tech giant has had a lot of leaders — seven CEOs since 1999.”

Yelp CEO Speaks Out on Google Monopoly: We Had No Choice

By
September 23, 2011
  • This week’s Senate hearings on “The Power of Google: Serving Customers or Threatening Competition?” barely scratched the surface, suggests CNNMoney.
  • “What Google did to Apple — copying Apple’s touchscreen operating system and offering it to Apple’s competitors for free — never came up,” indicates the article. “Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Chuck Schumer (D-NY) used much of their time to suck up to Google chairman Eric Schmidt, practically begging him to bring Google’s fiber-to-the-home experiment to their states.”
  • However, testimony from Jeremy Stoppelman, CEO of Yelp, was compelling, especially in regards to his take on the search giant’s apparent new mission.
  • “Let’s be clear. Google is no longer in the business of sending users to the best sources of information on the Web,” explained Stoppelman. “It now hopes to become a destination site itself for one vertical market after another, including news, shopping, travel, and now, local business reviews. It would be one thing if these efforts were conducted on a level playing field, but the reality is they’re not.”
  • “The experience in my industry is telling,” he added. “Google forces review websites to provide their content for free to benefit Google’s own competing product, not consumers. Google then gives its own product preferential treatment in Google search results.”
  • Stoppelman suggested the company’s actions were essentially part of an ultimatum: “Google first began taking our content without permission a year ago. Despite public and private protests, Google gave the ultimatum that only a monopolist can give: In order to appear in Web search, you must allow us to use your content to compete against you. As everyone in this room knows, not being in Google is equivalent to not existing on the Internet. We had no choice.”

Corporate Shake-Up: Do Recent Twitter Departures Suggest a Leaky Ship?

By
September 19, 2011
  • Twitter has announced that venture capitalists Bijan Sabet and Fred Wilson, two of the company’s earliest investors, will be leaving Twitter’s board of directors.
  • Additionally, Chief Scientist Abdur Chowdhury confirmed his departure, ironically enough, through his own Twitter account.
  • “So Long and Thanks for All the Fish. Twitter was an amazing experience & even greater set of people,” tweeted Chowdhury. (The first sentence is a reference to “The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy,” spoken by hyper-intelligent dolphins on their flight from the end of the world, reports VatorNews.)
  • The departures mark the latest in a series of related moves in what Vator refers to as a “mass exodus” that “reveals a leaky ship.”
  • Two of the company’s co-founders, Biz Stone and Evan Williams recently resigned from day-to-day operations (Williams remains on the board) and CTO Greg Pass left in May. Also, four product managers have reportedly been dismissed.
  • Other reports suggest the departure of the two directors may be less about a “leaky ship” and more about financial restructuring. “The person familiar with the matter said their departures were related to the reduction of their firms’ stakes in Twitter as part of a financing round in August,” reports The Wall Street Journal. Twitter recently announced it had raised a significant round of financing, putting the company’s worth at $8 billion.

The Real Motivation Behind the Motorola Mobility Acquisition

By
September 16, 2011
  • An intellectual property analyst makes the case that the reason Google acquired Motorola Mobility for $12.5 billion last month was not to provide patent protection for Android as most believe. It was to prevent Motorola Mobility from making one or more key moves that would have weakened Android’s patent situation even more.
  • For example, Motorola Mobility could have taken a patent license from Microsoft signaling a surrender that would have affected every other Android licensee.
  • It could have started work on a Windows Phone as a way to help it deal with a Microsoft infringement case, suggests the FOSS Patents blog. It also could have attacked other Android licensees to collect royalties.
  • And finally, it could have sold off its patent portfolio to one of Google’s competitors.

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